US Tariffs on China in 2026: The 37.5% Rate and the Nov 10 Deadline
By Harmony Shipping Services Team
The short version
Three things you need to know about US tariffs on Chinese goods right now:
- The 2025 IEEPA tariffs are gone. The Supreme Court invalidated them, and CBP stopped collecting on February 24, 2026.
- Most Chinese consumer goods and machinery now face roughly 37.5% in combined duty — the MFN rate, a 12.5% Section 301 base layer, and the legacy 25% Section 301 surcharge, stacked.
- Four separate measures expire on November 10, 2026. The big one for importers: 178 Section 301 product exclusions lapse, and duty reverts to the underlying list rate.
Here is the timeline, the rate math, the November 10 exposure, and what to do about it.
1. How we got here
February 20, 2026 — SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs
The Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the 10% fentanyl-related tariff and the so-called reciprocal tariffs. CBP ceased collection on February 24, 2026.
February 24, 2026 — the Section 122 stopgap
The same week, the administration issued a proclamation imposing a flat 10% surcharge on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Section 122 caps such surcharges at 150 days — putting expiry at July 24, 2026.
There was a legal detour. On May 7, 2026, the Court of International Trade held 2–1 that the proclamation’s reliance on trade and current-account deficits did not establish a balance-of-payments deficit within the meaning of the statute, and permanently enjoined collection against the importer plaintiffs. The court declined to issue a universal injunction, so most importers kept paying until statutory expiry.
July 24, 2026 — the swap: a 12.5% Section 301 base layer
On the day Section 122 lapsed, it was replaced by a Section 301 “forced labor” tariff that places China in the 12.5% tier. That is now the base layer in the Chinese rate stack.
October 7, 2026 — legacy 301 duties continue
USTR announced that, having received requests from domestic industry, the Section 301 tariffs imposed since 2018 are not terminated and remain in effect, subject to possible modification following the second statutory four-year review.
2. What you actually pay today
Four layers apply. Not every layer hits every product.
| Layer | Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1. MFN base (HTS) | 0%–32% | Product-specific, from the tariff schedule |
| 2. Section 301 base layer | 12.5% | Replaced the Section 122 surcharge on 2026-07-24 |
| 3. Section 301 surcharge (Lists 1–4A) | 25% on most 7.5% on some consumer goods and apparel 100% on EVs 50% on solar modules and semiconductors 25% on Li-ion EV batteries |
2018-era lists plus 2024 increases |
| 4. Section 232 (if applicable) | 50% steel, aluminum, copper 25% semiconductors 10% lumber |
Assessed on metal content; the base layer does not stack on the metal |
Worked examples
- Smartphone: 0% MFN + 12.5% + 25% = 37.5%
- Electric vehicle: 2.5% + 12.5% + 100% = 115%
- Solar module: 0% + 12.5% + 50% = 62.5%
So “37.5%” is not a universal number. It is the typical landing point for consumer electronics and light machinery. Apparel and some consumer goods sit lower on the 301 ladder; EVs, solar, and metals sit far higher.
3. November 10, 2026: four measures expire together
All four instruments were set to a common one-year clock under the late-2025 Busan arrangement. All four expire on November 10, 2026.
a) 178 Section 301 exclusions — the biggest direct exposure
178 exclusions remain in force: 164 product-specific exclusions plus 14 covering solar manufacturing equipment, claimed under secondary heading 9903.88.69. USTR last extended them by notice published December 1, 2025, running through close of business November 9, 2026.
What happens on lapse: duty reverts to the underlying list rate — 25% for Lists 1, 2 and 3, and 7.5% for List 4A.
The remaining exclusions are concentrated in industrial inputs and capital equipment: pumps, motors, specialty chemicals, wear parts, certain medical consumables, and solar manufacturing tooling. These are not easily substitutable consumer goods — they are qualified inputs sitting inside US production lines.
As of October 21, 2026, no extension notice had been published.
b) The maritime port fee truce
The Section 301 service fee on Chinese-built, Chinese-owned and Chinese-operated vessels entered into force in April 2025 and was subsequently suspended. On October 27, 2026, USTR sought public comment on a further suspension — suggesting an extension is in progress, though no formal notice has been published.
c) The BIS affiliates rule suspension
The suspension of the Bureau of Industry and Security’s export-control affiliates rule expires on the same date.
d) China’s rare earth export control pause
Beijing’s October 2025 suspension of rare earth export controls is likewise keyed to November 10.
Important distinction: the broader US–China truce was extended in late September 2026 through January 2027. But these four items are separate instruments with their own clocks. A truce extension does not automatically extend them.
4. How this flows into your DDP pricing
If you buy DDP, duty is not a variable settled at the port — it is baked into the unit price on quote day. Two consequences:
Quote validity is compressing
A 30-day DDP quote was normal. Around a policy cliff, forwarders typically shorten validity to 7–14 days on affected commodities, or add a duty-adjustment clause.
Locking the duty basis beats chasing the freight rate
Ocean freight swings by tens of dollars per container. A one-percentage-point duty change on a $100,000 shipment is $1,000. During a policy window, confirming whether the quote states “duty at the rate in effect on date of shipment” matters more than shaving the freight rate.
5. Five things to do before November 10
1. Re-verify HS classification
Rate differences start with classification. The same product under two different HTS codes can land on different 301 lists and fall in or out of Section 232. Prioritize SKUs that combine metal content with electronic function.
2. Check whether your goods are on the 178-item exclusion list
If you have been entering under 9903.88.69, assume your landed cost rises on November 10 and negotiate the split with your supplier or customer now — not on the day of shipment.
3. Rebuild your landed-cost model by layer
Model MFN + 12.5% + 301 surcharge + 232 (if applicable) as four separate line items, not one blended percentage. When policy moves, you change one line instead of rebuilding the sheet.
4. Preserve your entry records
With the IEEPA tariffs invalidated, there is a substantial refund pool for duties paid in 2025. Whether you qualify and how to file is a question for a licensed customs broker or trade counsel — but complete documentation is the prerequisite. Keep commercial invoices, entry summaries and duty payment records.
5. Put a duty clause in your contract
Under DDP, duty is the seller’s or forwarder’s cost. Specify the rate basis date, how policy changes are passed through, and the threshold that triggers renegotiation.
6. Three misconceptions worth correcting
“IEEPA was struck down, so the tariffs are gone”
No. What was invalidated was the IEEPA authority. Section 301 and Section 232 are separate authorities the Court did not touch. Section 301 duties are still being collected, and USTR confirmed on October 7, 2026 that they continue.
“De minimis is still $800”
It is not. Section 321 de minimis ended for China and Hong Kong on May 2, 2025, and was extended to all countries on August 29, 2025. No restoration timeline has been announced.
“I can move production and avoid the duty”
Origin is determined by substantial transformation, not the shipping point. Simple transshipment, repacking or relabeling generally does not change origin, and the Section 301 regulations contain specific anti-circumvention provisions. The downside risk far exceeds the duty saved.
7. FAQ
What is the duty on a full container from China to the US right now?
It depends entirely on the commodity. Most consumer electronics and machinery land around 37.5% combined; some apparel and consumer goods carry a 7.5% Section 301 rate; EVs are 115%; solar modules 62.5%; steel and aluminum articles can reach 75% once Section 232 stacks. There is no single container-level rate — each HTS line is assessed separately.
Will rates go up or down after November 10?
On the public record, the near-term risk skews upward: letting the 178 exclusions lapse pushes affected goods back to 25%. The maritime fee is more likely to be extended, since USTR opened a comment period on October 27. The other two items had no published extension as of October 28.
Does a DDP quote include duty?
Yes. DDP means delivered duty paid — duty, clearance and delivery are inside the all-in price. The thing to check is whether the quote specifies the rate basis date, which determines who absorbs a policy change.
Should I ship now or wait until after November 10?
If your goods are on the exclusion list and you can complete entry on or before November 9, the exclusion still applies. If you cannot, budget at the post-lapse rate. Ask your broker the concrete question: can these entries be filed before November 9?
8. Practical notes for FCL shippers
- Book earlier than usual. If you need entry before November 9, work backwards from the filing date. Peak-season space does not accommodate last-minute acceleration.
- Cost mixed containers line by line. A container with multiple product categories carries multiple rates. Entry must be filed per HTS line, not at a blended average.
- Put the rate basis date on the quote. This is where disputes cluster around a policy deadline.
The bottom line
The 2026 question is no longer whether tariffs go up or down — it is whether you are calculating with this year’s structure or last year’s. The real risk is not the rate level; it is budgeting 2026 shipments on 2025 assumptions.
November 10 is a concrete checkpoint. Before then: re-verify your HS codes, confirm whether your goods sit on the 178-item exclusion list, and rebuild your landed-cost model by layer.
Disclaimer: Information current as of October 28, 2026, compiled from US Supreme Court and Court of International Trade decisions, USTR notices, Hong Kong Trade and Industry Department Circular No. 882/2026, and published industry analysis. Tariff policy changes frequently. For the rate applicable to your specific goods and for compliance decisions, rely on current CBP guidance and advice from a licensed customs broker or trade counsel.
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